Economic forecasting at the BBC should be more straightforward than in a commercial organisation. So Tim Davie's farewell call for £600m in savings over three years must have some logic. Ahead is a 3.13% rise in the licence fee, but that's based on annual CPI - and the BBC always argues that 'broadcasting inflation' is way ahead of that. Last year's pay deal saw the total wage bill rise 4.5%; a deal with Equity saw performers get rises between 10 and 13%.
The number of licence fees 'in force' is steadily falling, in the context of politicians and papers 'dissing' paying at all. If there hadn't been an increase in the licence fee for 2024/5, the BBC would have been down £50m, rather than up a billion in income. Say the number of licence fees in force drops 800,000 over the year, the remaining 23,000,000 paying the new £180 rate generates £126.5m of 'new money' in the twelve months. And CPI won't come down to 2% until late 2027, according to the OBR.
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