Purdah

Master of Spin Alastair Campbell came close to identifying the root cause of Starmer's current woes on the Today Programme this morning. Most new administrations go for a Budget within 4 to 6 weeks of their arrival in office.  Rachel Reeves' key despatch box appearance will be close to four months after the General Election. 

Effectively, pre-Budget purdah started on July 5th. Ministers were allowed to announce reviews, and not much more. The symbolic cutting of the Winter Fuel Allowance For All might have been ok in a mini-budget, when the public might be able to see some balancing actions, but we won't know until the end of October whether this was strategic shroud-waving. Are we heading for mini-austerity or a form of belt-tightening that actually restricts circulation ?

Fear of scaring the markets means the Treasury and the OBR have been testing Labour's policies non-stop over the summer. And never mind the Black Hole - the Tories left many more capital spending plans in the too-difficult-for-an-election year.  Prisons, hospitals and schools are in desperate need of new building plans. Transport strategy requires big decisions about road-building v road maintenance; and how to take funds from motorists as we switch from petrol and diesel to evs; local authorities, universities are teetering on the brink of financial collapse; the way we pay GPs is now so dysfunctional that hedge-funds are snapping up practices and consolidating them; can anyone tell what our policy on farming land is meant deliver - houses, crops or lovely meadows ? 

Billions of short and long-term funding need to be re-arranged into a coherent five year plan by October 30th; one that the OBR can acknowledge as likely to improve the financial position of UK Ltd over the period. 

Sue Grey got naively caught up in one minor element; trying to control spending on Westminster Special Advisers. It's marginal; core salaries have grown from £9m to close to £13m over the last five years, with hefty sums on top for the severance pay consequential on changes of Prime Minister. She might have come clean and said let's have fewer than 100, but opted for an secret downgrading.  SpAds are also very conscious of hospitality and gifts, subject to the same three month declarations as their ministers...