Once again, Andrew Gilligan is in the middle of a big news story. His November 2022 paper for Policy Exchange, "The Kindest Cut of All", was the blueprint for Rishi Sunak's cancellation of HS2 beyond Birmingham. And his influence on the Department for Transport 40-page cobble-together, "Network North" is clear in the language throughout.
However, both Gilligan's and Sunak's maths are murky, and there's no sign of the Office of Budget Responsibility checking their work. Gilligan's first paper choose to use 2019 costings increased by CPI to 2022; Network North uses 2019 figures. Many commentators have noted the inclusion in Network North's alleged 'balance sheet' of projects already completed, or projects where funding has been previously committed. How much have they estimated from the resale of land already purchased ? How much have they calculated will be 'made' from a new Euston Quarter ? Over what period will £8.3bn be spent on English potholes ? Should No 10 be allowed to "spend" what essentially are "costs avoided" from a cancellation that has not been through Parliament ?
I hope the OBR are ready for some serious scrutiny of the next spending review.
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