Monday, December 13, 2010

X Factor probabilities

Oh dear.  Robin Goad, UK research director and blogger for Experian Hitwise, better stick to stats rather than their extrapolation.  As we reported  on Friday, he predicted a win for One Direction in the XFactor final. However, the limited detail revealed by Syco of the top two in each week's phone-in votes, shows Matt in front nearly all the way. Which is perhaps why he was favourite at the bookies.

Week
1 Mary Byrne/Matt Cardle

2 Matt Cardle/Mary Byrne

3 Matt Cardle/Mary Byrne

4 Matt Cardle/Cher Lloyd

5 Matt Cardle/Rebecca Ferguson

6 Matt Cardle/Rebecca Ferguson

7 Matt Cardle/Katie Waissel

8 Matt Cardle/Rebecca Ferguson

9 Matt Cardle/Rebecca Ferguson


These positions, however, are more than slightly at odds, at least in second place, with an alleged leak we picked up via Twitter after show 7, on Saturday 20 November, which read "Leaked votes MATT (25%) ... REBECCA (21%) ONE DIRECTION (15%) MARY (14%) ... WAGNER (8%) CHER (7%) KATIE (7%) PAIJE (3%)". 


It's probably time someone (Ofcom ?) made the declaration of the actual numbers of votes cast in all phone polls compulsory.

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