Bookmakers Paddy Power make Matt Cardle 4/5 to win the XFactor. Taciturn Liverpudlian Rebecca Ferguson is second favourite at 5/2, with One Direction at 3/1, and Cher at 33/1.
Hitwise analyst Robin Goad called last year's winner Joe McElderry, based on web searches and the demographics of fan websites. Bookmakers at that time also made Joe odds-on favourite ahead of the final. But this year Robin is going against the odds, and predicting a win for One Direction. He discounts Rebecca Ferguson almost entirely; and then argues that, though there are more UK searches online for Cher than the others, many of them are looking for what he calls "negatives". "Negative" searches would, in Robin's view, include things like "Cher anorexic" and "Cher naked". He therefore argues she's Marmite - both loved and hated in equal measures, and thus can't win. (I hope Robin hasn't forgotten there's more than one Cher in the pop world).
For rest, it's based on trends, plus the likelihood of the One Direction fanbase being readier to spend when it comes to real voting. All the detail here.
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