In five days' time, Mark Thompson will present BBC staff with savings and efficiency ideas that have come from "their process", the Delivering Quality First workstreams. Overall, you can expect the organisation to be hung on the twin horns of "quality", meaning, in this case "highbrow", and "reach", meaning if we don't do some sport, pop and house search shows, we'll never keep 93% of the population on board every week. In general, department bosses will make the cuts they were expecting make anyway. Here's ten things to think about.
1: Upmarket wins every time. When this blog floated the idea of dropping Newsnight, the DG was swift to say it's safe. But the journalism workstream, under Bob Shennan, has been the quietest. Expect the News Channel to go down to single presentation in daytime, and the Daily Politics to shift from BBC2.
2: Upmarket wins every time. All quiet on the orchestras front this time round. Which other state broadcaster runs five of them ?
3: BBC local radio stations will still do news and live sport, but will struggle to protect music shows - both weekday and weekends. They could well be made to partner in some way with Radio 2, rather than Radio Five Live.
4: Andy Parfitt won't be replaced when he hangs up his boots at 1 and 1Xtra; Bob Shennan will manage the networks alongside 2, 6Music, the Asian Network and local radio music output in a new structure in the revamped Broadcasting House. The multi platform music ambitions of Radio 1 and 2 will, however, will be severely curtailed.
5: Upmarket wins every time. Radio 3 and Radio 4 would rather make their own savings, thank you very much, so will simply be set "cost per hour" reduction targets; they've never previously succumbed to proper benchmarking, and look like getting away with it again.
6: Sports rights. Barbara Slater has had her hands tied in every sports rights negotiation since coming to the post of Director. Rivals Sky, ITV and ESPN can now outbid at will. Luckily Wimbledon wants the BBC to do Wimbledon. It would suit the organisation to become a "highlights" operation. The Trust is disdainful of F1 and Championship football. Sadly the BBC will still be saddled with Trooping the Colour, the Marathon, the Great North Run, etc - but will drop the Lord Mayor's Show.
7: Overnight TV: There's smoke and mirrors in the leak that overnight tv costs "£150m a year". There are good audiences to be had in the scheduled chat shows, etc - the repeats that follow after midnight, on BBC1, BBC2, BBC3 and BBC4 cost little to transmit by machine, and allow for the required number of signed versions to go out.
8: Daytime TV: Simply put, Liam Keelan's budget will be halved. Longer term - Blue Peter will be reduced to one new show a week ( can you tell when you see a new one ?) and all children's shows will be shifted out of BBC1 - but only when Freeview has rolled out round the country.
9: Other TV: The patience of all with Richard Klein and Janice Hadlow will run out. There has to be a more co-ordinated policy for BBC2 and BBC4.
10. There'll be more investment in costume, sorry, "quality" drama.
One thing, I think, won't happen. There won't be a single "output" director across tv, radio and online - and real opportunity to change the culture will have been missed again.
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